Trump’s Airstrike Had a Real Impact on Syrian + Russian Air Force Operations
By Tom Cooper.
The Tomahawk (TLAM) strike on Shayrat (see my preliminary report, written on the afternoon of 7 April) hit the nerve and blocked most of SyAAF’s operations for 7 April 2017. After flying about 60 air strikes a day before — including about 30 from Shayrat — Assadists did manage to fly another 55 yesterday. However, no less than 30 of these were undertaken by helicopters, and 9 by L-39s. Meaning not only did flying from Shayrat stop, but also most flying from other fast-jet bases. Clearly, helicopters and L-39s can neither carry as much weapons as MiG-23s and/or Su-22s, nor deliver these against well-protected targets. Indeed, helicopters are exclusively dropping ‘barrel bombs’, which lack the precision of weapons deployed by fighter-bombers.
Impacts of the US TLAM-strike on Shayrat were particularly obvious in regards to sorties by MiG-23s and Su-22s: these went down from 5 and 26 on 6 April, respectively, to 1 and 2 on 7 April, respectively. Specifically, Su-22 flew one sortie in the morning, apparently launched form Dmeyr around 11.07hrs (mentioned above), and another from Tiyas, around 17.25hrs (also mentioned above).
With this, Assadist and Russian claims about ‘Sharyat operational again’ as of 7 April were proven as lies.
On the contrary, all of this is a clear indication that TLAM attacks on Assadist air bases are an ideal solution to stop bombardment of civilians and stop deployment of chemical weapons.
Russian reports along which ‘only’ 23 out of 59 TLAMs fired at Shayrat have reached their target are nothing but lies: 59 TLAMs reached the Syrian coast in Tartous area, where one of them crashed (this photo is showing its warhead). If any more would’ve crashed, if any other would’ve been jammed or shot down, there would be many more such photos. Instead, there are no such photos: instead, sat photos of Shayrat airbase show 58 hits by TLAMs on 44 different objects.
That said, Shayrat was not ‘completely destroyed’ in the sense of ‘never to be used again’ but certainly devastated. It needs entirely new ammo and fuel depots, just for a start.
The day began with only two take-offs by Su-22M-4Ks of №677 Squadron — both from Shayrat — were registered. This unit now seems to have only 3–4 Su-22s left (serials 3233, 3235 and 3237 are confirmed by visual evidence). That’s a drop from 20+ on 6 April, to 2 on 8 April, i.e. a 90% decrease.
This is unlikely to change. Namely, such aircraft are something the Russians simply cannot replace: they have none in operational service for 20 or more years.
8 April began with a big wave of 20 Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) air strikes (plus one SyAAF L-39) launched between 00.00 and 02.00hrs. This primarily targeted the area between Jishr ash-Shughour in the west and Khan Sheykhoun, but also Latamina and Ma’arat an-Nauman.
The Darat Azza area was bombed by six Russian aircraft between 05.30 and 06.30, before Kfar Nabl was bombed by three, around 07.45.
The next wave was again run by the VKS only. It was initiated at 09.20 and continued until noon, when 19 aircraft were launched that bombed the area between Jishr ash-Shughour and Khan Sheykhoun again.
Meanwhile, Assadists began flying, but at a very low rate. Except for a helicopter and a MiG-23 that took off from Hama, one Su-22 launched from Shayrat airbase around 10.45. This was the first take-off from this air base since the TLAM-attack and served a PR purpose, allowing Russian TV teams to continue spreading lies that the US strike didn’t cause any damage. Another Su-22 launched from Shayrat at 11.11hrs (it bombed the Kfar Zita area). Two Su-24s were launched from Tiyas airbase during the morning too.
Three additional Su-24s launched from Tiyas between 12.00 and 14.00hrs, and the third Su-22 from Shayrat (at 13.50). Several of their air strikes have targeted Dera’a.
The next Russian wave commenced launched around 14.45. It included a total of 22 aircraft that got airborne by 16.10 and primarily targeted the Ma’arat an-Nauman and Khan Sheykhoun area.
The fourth VKS wave commenced launching at 18.00hr: it lasted for the next three hours and included 13 aircraft that primarily targeted the area between Khan Sheykhoun and Kfar Zita. The VKS made extensive use of CBU’s filled with thermite in these attacks.
With this it could be said the Russian air strikes of yesterday seem to have ‘followed’ some kind of movement from the Turkish border, i.e. from Jishr ash-Shughour, towards the Kfar Zita area: they began bombing northwest in the morning, then continued moving their targets ever further southeast. A very interesting development — very interesting ‘tactics’ too.
The final Russian wave commenced launching at 22.00hrs but ended already at 22.41 and it saw extensive use of CBUs filled with termite again.
No further activity by SyAAF aircraft was registered through the entire afternoon and evening. With other words: the Russians can boast about ‘Shayrat airbase is back in action’, but the fact of the matter is that there are barely any aircraft left there Assadists can operate.
Post above based on fuller reports posted on April 7 and April 8.
